AGP Executive Report

Gulf Security Shock: The US-Iran ceasefire is unraveling after renewed strikes and missile/drone exchanges, with Iran burying Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei as explosions reported near Bushehr and other southern sites; Maritime Disruption: shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is again near a standstill as war-risk premiums rise and insurers warn operators, with GCC states condemning attacks on Saudi and Qatari tankers; Energy Markets: oil prices slid about 2% on demand worries even as Hormuz reopening remains delayed, keeping freight and insurance costs elevated; Saudi-Canada Industrial Push: Prime Minister Mark Carney’s first Saudi visit in 26 years is driving deals worth $1bn+ across energy, mining, infrastructure and AI, including MoUs and a coordination council; Renewables Finance in the Region: Kuwait’s AEP plans an equity raise to expand solar and hybrid projects across Kuwait, Oman, Jordan and Saudi Arabia, signaling continued MENA clean-energy investment despite regional uncertainty.

Saudi Aviation & Infrastructure: King Salman International Airport Development Company (KSIADC) is set to tender two infrastructure contracts after prequalification, including a permanent East-West corridor plus landside access roads for North and South terminals, with roads, bridges and tunnels in scope. AI & Data Sovereignty: Nutanix’s Saudi Enterprise Cloud Index finds AI is accelerating container adoption (85% expect more containerization; 72% link it to AI), while governance, infrastructure readiness and data sovereignty remain key hurdles. Saudi Finance: Saudi mortgage refinancer has priced a $2.75bn government-guaranteed sukuk and doubled its international sukuk programme to $10bn. Logistics & Trade: Mark Carney arrived in Saudi for meetings with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and business leaders, aiming to deepen bilateral trade and investment. Energy Shockwatch: Renewed US-Iran strikes and the Strait of Hormuz risk are driving oil higher and rattling global forecasts, with the IMF’s growth outlook tied to a Hormuz reopening assumption now looking shaky. Agri-Food Pressure: Nestlé’s review and potential exit from dairy/juice in Trinidad & Tobago has dairy farmers worried—an indirect reminder of how global food players can quickly reshape farm demand. Security & Shipping Risk: Multiple tankers reportedly turned back from Hormuz amid attacks, underlining how quickly maritime routes can tighten. Saudi Tech for Industry: KAUST unveiled AI-assisted device authentication using laser-generated physical “fingerprints,” targeting secure identity for large-scale connected networks. Human Capital: SAL Logistics Services and flyadeal signed an MoU to expand logistics training via SAL Academy.

Strait of Hormuz Shock: Trump said the US-Iran ceasefire is “over” after renewed attacks on shipping, with CENTCOM confirming additional strikes aimed at degrading Iran’s ability to threaten freedom of navigation; the flare-up followed Iran-linked attacks on vessels including Saudi-flagged tankers, and has already pushed oil up more than 5% and rattled markets. Maritime Disruption: The IMO warned about about 6,000 stranded seafarers as tankers turned back and incidents hit an LNG carrier and a Saudi tanker near the strait, while regional states urged ships to avoid the route. Saudi Industry Angle: Saudi Aramco awarded five-year framework consulting and engineering contracts to 11 global firms to support major capital projects—an effort to keep energy and chemicals expansion on track amid shipping and supply-route risks. Tourism & Travel Simplification: Saudi launched a digital “Package Visa” that bundles visa issuance into curated travel bookings, aiming to make inbound trips easier as the country targets continued tourism growth. Regional Diplomacy: Oman and Saudi discussed Hormuz navigation security, underscoring how maritime stability is now central to trade and energy planning across the Gulf.

Strait of Hormuz Shock to Saudi Energy: Oil prices jumped again after fresh US strikes on Iran and Washington revoked an interim waiver allowing Iranian crude sales, with Brent rising above $76 as attacks on commercial vessels—including a Saudi tanker—renewed fears of supply disruption. Ceasefire in Doubt: US President Donald Trump said the Iran ceasefire is “over,” while NATO leaders backed the response, adding more uncertainty for regional trade and shipping. Saudi Condemns Tanker Attacks: Saudi Arabia blamed Iran for targeting the Wedyan tanker and the Al Rekayyat vessel, calling it an assault on navigation and global energy supplies. Clean Energy Export Push: Saudi authorized ACWA Power with exclusive rights to export green hydrogen and renewable electricity, building on the NEOM Green Hydrogen push. Maritime Logistics Upgrade: Bahri Logistics signed with Grandweld Shipyard to build two offshore support vessels for Ras Tanura operations, boosting fleet capability amid heightened sea-risk. Regional De-escalation Call: Oman condemned attacks on Bahrain, Kuwait and the affected commercial vessels, urging restraint and dialogue to protect maritime safety and energy flows.

Strait of Hormuz Flashpoint: Iran-linked attacks hit commercial shipping near the Strait, including Qatar’s LNG tanker Al Rekayyat (engine-room fire after a reported drone strike) and a Saudi-flagged crude tanker believed to be Wedyan, prompting strong condemnations from Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain and renewed warnings over global energy security. US Retaliation & Sanctions: The US launched “powerful” strikes on Iran and revoked a licence allowing Iranian oil sales, escalating pressure as a fragile US-Iran ceasefire wobbles. Oil Market Shock: Crude prices jumped on the attacks and strike headlines, then swung back toward pre-conflict levels as markets weighed supply risks against easing expectations. Saudi Logistics Move: Saudi Arabia is reportedly considering expanding its crude pipeline capacity to the Red Sea to reduce reliance on Hormuz, with preliminary talks on boosting throughput. Saudia Cargo Growth: Saudia Cargo ordered four Boeing 777-200 freighters to expand dedicated air freight capacity through 2027, targeting growth in e-commerce and exports. Policy & Services: Saudi Arabia launched an all-in-one “Package Visa” to simplify travel bookings, bundling flights, hotels and e-visa services.

Strait of Hormuz Risk: Iran struck tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, damaging a Qatari LNG carrier and a Saudi-flagged crude tanker, pushing up the war-risk premium and renewing fears for global energy routes. Saudi Energy Security: Reuters reports Saudi Arabia is considering expanding its Red Sea crude pipeline capacity to cut reliance on Hormuz, with talks involving neighbors about adding up to 2 million bpd. OPEC+ Supply Call: OPEC+ agreed to raise August output by 188,000 bpd, extending monthly increases even as Hormuz disruptions keep shipping below pre-war levels. Saudi Construction Momentum: Saudi construction growth accelerated in June, with residential activity leading and infrastructure work returning to growth on Vision 2030 spending. Tourism & Investment: Saudi Arabia launched a pilot “Package Visa” that bundles flights, hotels and visa processing in one booking, and also unveiled plans for a $135m ferris wheel in Madinah to extend visitor stays. Logistics & Shipping: Bahri Logistics signed with Grandweld Shipyard to build two offshore support vessels for Ras Tanura operations, while Saudia Cargo ordered four more Boeing 777-200Fs to expand its freighter fleet.

Oil Market Watch: Saudi Arabia cut August official selling prices for Asia sharply (Arab Light down $11/bbl, with a $1.50 discount to the regional benchmark), as OPEC+ approved a fresh 188,000 bpd output increase and Strait of Hormuz exports kept recovering—pushing Brent/WTI back toward pre-Iran-war levels. Shipping & Logistics: Ten Japan-linked vessels finally exited Hormuz after months stranded, while tanker flows improved but insurers and operators still face higher war-risk costs, keeping full normalization slow. Construction & Projects: Saudi Contractors Authority data shows June project awards hit 25 projects worth over SAR29.5bn, led by construction (56% of value), with Eastern Region topping both number and value. Food Security: Saudi Arabia bought 661,000 tonnes of wheat in its latest tender, as global wheat prices firmed on weather support and Saudi demand remains a key driver. Energy Tech: A Saudi university team developed a laser-based sensor aimed at early lithium-ion battery thermal-runaway alerts, targeting safer air cargo and electric aircraft operations. Sports Infrastructure: Pakistan and Saudi Arabia signed an MoU to build a new cricket stadium in Jeddah, combining local delivery with Pakistani stadium expertise.

Oil & Energy Markets: OPEC+ agreed to lift August production targets by 188,000 bpd, with Saudi Arabia among the main contributors, as Strait of Hormuz shipping shows signs of recovery—pushing Brent and WTI lower and reviving “glut” worries. Industrial Services & Engineering: Worley won a five-year Aramco framework deal for engineering and project management across energy and chemicals projects in Saudi Arabia, with a push toward digital tools and local talent. Construction & Infrastructure: Emaar The Economic City awarded a SAR 547.4m infrastructure contract to Nesma & Partners for Phase 1 of the King Salman Automotive Cluster and other Industrial Valley works in KAEC. Mining & Metals: Sierra Nevada Gold reports promising high-grade copper finds at Saudi’s As Safra project. Space & Data: Centre for Space Futures, Novaspace and SpaceTech Gulf signed an MoC to build a Global Space Capability Mapping and Index Dashboard for decision-makers. Hospitality: Marriott signed to open The Westin Abha in Saudi’s Asir region (planned for 2031). Tech & Finance: SK Hynix launched a massive Nasdaq ADR listing to fund AI memory expansion, underscoring the region’s wider tech investment momentum.

Oil & Shipping: OPEC+ (Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, Oman) agreed to raise August quotas by 188,000 bpd as Strait of Hormuz traffic gradually recovers, but prices still face pressure from reopening supply and lingering uncertainty; meanwhile, a cargo ship was reported attacked off Yemen near Hodeidah, adding to Red Sea risk. Anti-Commercial Concealment Crackdown: Saudi Arabia’s National Program to Combat Commercial Concealment carried out 4,500+ inspections in June, flagging 104 suspected cases for investigation, with penalties including possible prison and fines up to SR5 million. Aviation & Services: Saudia won the 2026 APEX Award for Best Cabin Service in the Middle East, highlighting continued investment in guest experience. Diplomacy: Saudi FM Faisal bin Farhan met China’s Wang Yi in Beijing as both sides pushed forward the comprehensive strategic partnership. Regional Tensions: Yemen warned Saudi Arabia it will end the siege “regardless of the cost” after an Iranian civilian flight landed at Sana’a airport, escalating pressure around Saudi-Yemen dynamics. Water Infrastructure (Regional): Bahrain’s EWA named Acwa as sole bidder for the Hidd Independent Water Project, a BOO desalination scheme supporting potable water demand.

Oil Market: OPEC+ agreed to lift crude output quotas by 188,000 bpd starting August, with Saudi Arabia’s share set at +62,000 bpd, as Strait of Hormuz shipping gradually normalizes and prices stay pressured by supply worries. Retail & Payments: Saudi POS spending rose 1.9% week-on-week to $3.36bn (SR12.60bn) in the week ending June 27, led by food and beverages. Non-Oil Economy: Riyad Bank’s PMI showed Saudi Arabia’s non-oil private sector activity hit a four-month high in June, supported by stronger new orders and domestic demand, while exports stayed weak. Real Estate: Sumou signed a development management deal for a 6,394-sq-m mixed-use project in Jeddah, targeting sales above SAR700m. Startup & Innovation: KPMG opened applications for its Global Tech Innovator 2026, backing Saudi-registered tech startups to scale globally. Energy Security & Shipping: Oman said it will work with the UK and France to support safe navigation in the Strait of Hormuz as traffic picks up. Digital Skills (Regional): Saudi-backed SDRPY launched training for 500 Yemeni teachers to boost digital and AI-enabled classroom skills.

Water & Power Infrastructure: Bahrain is moving ahead with a new Hidd Independent Water Project, with Saudi Arabia’s ACWA Power as the sole bidder for a 60m imperial gallons/day seawater reverse-osmosis plant, expected to start in 2028. Saudi Construction Abroad: Mabani Aljazeera plans to invest in Jabali Towers at Kenya’s Tatu City SEZ, with the first tower already reported over 80% sold and infrastructure support including high uptime power and fiber connectivity. Saudi Energy & Industry: OPEC output rebounded in June to 19.43m bpd (+3.3m), as Gulf supply disruptions eased and Saudi, Iraq, Nigeria and Libya increased production. Regional Trade & Logistics: Pakistan and Türkiye pledged to lift bilateral trade toward $5bn, while broader corridor talk continues around linking trade, energy and data flows across the India–Gulf–Europe axis. Saudi Tech/AI Finance: Together AI raised $800m Series C at an $8.3bn valuation, with Aramco Ventures among the backers, betting on rented compute for AI at scale. Saudi Agriculture & Water Stress: Jazan’s mountain terraces are highlighted as a model of soil-and-water conserving farming, as the region faces extreme water stress pressures.

Aviation & Security: Yemen’s Houthis escalated threats against Saudi Arabia, warning they will target Saudi airports and “vital interests” if Riyadh violates airspace after alleged airspace intrusion tied to an Iranian civilian flight to Sanaa. Terror Designations: India’s Home Ministry designated 23 Pakistan- and PoJK-based operatives as terrorists under UAPA, including a JeM figure linked to reconnaissance of the Ayodhya Ram temple and RSS HQ, plus Hafiz Saeed’s son-in-law. Mega Infrastructure: King Salman International Airport is under construction for a 185m-passenger annual target, with a first phase aimed at 120m by 2030—an ambitious bet on Saudi aviation and tourism demand. Energy & Shipping: Gulf oil exports jumped in June as Strait of Hormuz flows recovered, while Iran issued fresh navigation-route warnings to tankers and commercial vessels. Tourism Tech: Saudi tourism is leaning into AI for personalized trip planning and destination discovery, with operators citing higher booking conversion. Construction & Real Estate (Saudi-linked): Mabani Aljazeera Group bought a 49% stake in Jabali Towers at Tatu City, backing multi-storey development in Kenya. Logistics: DP World opened Egypt’s first fully integrated Logistics Distribution Centre at Sokhna, aiming to streamline warehousing, customs and value-added services for regional trade.

Middle East Security: Yemen’s Houthis warned Saudi Arabia it could face attacks on “airports and vital interests” if Riyadh violates Yemeni airspace, after claims Saudi jets tried to block an Iranian civilian plane carrying more than 200 wounded and sick passengers from landing in Sanaa. Oil & Shipping: Oil prices were steady to slightly higher as US-Iran peace talks kept Strait of Hormuz reopening hopes alive, while Gulf producers boosted output and Saudi Aramco shifted toward spot sales to accelerate deliveries. Saudi-Pakistan Business & Industry Links: Pakistan’s interior minister met Saudi officials in Jeddah, reaffirming ties and highlighting a new agreement to build an international-standard cricket stadium—another sign of expanding Saudi-Pakistani cooperation beyond energy and manpower. Clean Energy: Australian green hydrogen startup Hysata said it expects its first large-scale electrolyser delivery in H1 2027, with an export customer secured—fueling momentum for hydrogen projects that Saudi industry is watching closely. SME Finance: Beehive completed its majority-stake acquisition of Saudi debt crowdfunding platform Themar, creating a regulated digital SME financing player across UAE, Oman and Saudi.

Energy & Trade Diversification: India kept diversifying LPG supply in June, with the US remaining the top source (773.78 TMT, +19.4%); the UAE took second (157 TMT, +16.6%), while Saudi Arabia and Kuwait each supplied about 64 TMT as Hormuz flows normalized. Oil Market Watch: Oil prices wavered as Persian Gulf exports rebounded toward pre-war levels, with Saudi crude exports nearing 90% of pre-war levels and analysts flagging demand uncertainty and possible oversupply. Saudi Industrial Moves: Navantia laid the keel for the 8th Saudi corvette at San Fernando, with delivery targeted for 2029 and combat-system integration in Saudi Arabia. Grid Storage Procurement: Saudi SPPC’s second tender seeks bidders for six large-scale BESS projects totaling 3GW/12GWh across Qassim, Makkah, Madinah and Eastern province. Manufacturing Localization: Roboze joined SABIC’s Home of Innovation to support localized, sovereign production of mission-critical components using advanced additive manufacturing. Water & Infrastructure: Webuild’s Fisia Italimpianti marked “first water” at an Aramco groundwater treatment plant for offshore Zuluf, enabling reinjection to sustain production. Labor & Services: Saudi Manpower Solutions signed a SAR 80.7m shelters contract with the ministry for domestic workers.

Strait of Hormuz Security: Oman’s Sultan Haitham met UK PM Keir Starmer to discuss restoring freedom of navigation and possible fee-based arrangements for safeguards and navigation regulation, as European officials seek a return to the pre-war status quo. Regional Shipping Commitments: The US and 12 Middle East countries agreed in Bahrain to intensify coordination for uninterrupted trade through Hormuz, with Saudi Arabia among the participants. Iran-US Tensions at the UN: Iran’s UN envoy criticized Bahrain’s emergency Security Council session, warning it could undermine technical talks tied to the Islamabad MoU. Saudi Oil Exports: Saudi Aramco resumed/boosted Ras Tanura loadings and switched to spot pricing to speed Asia sales; exports are reported near 90% of pre-war levels as flows through the Persian Gulf rebound. Oil Prices: Crude steadied near pre-war lows as Hormuz flows surged and traders weighed oversupply risk. Arbitration & Trade Rules: Saudi Center for Commercial Arbitration highlighted high award enforcement rates in its 2026 country report, reinforcing confidence for cross-border deals. Construction Materials: Conmarble opened a Riyadh showroom, pushing natural finishes tied to building wellbeing as Saudi construction accelerates. Logistics Deal: Ceva Logistics agreed to buy Paack’s Iberian/European last-mile units to expand its network and tech capabilities.

Aviation & Logistics: SAL Logistics Services has signed a yearly renewable deal with Singapore Airlines to provide integrated cargo ground handling at King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, aiming to boost service reliability for air freight operations. Oil & Shipping: Saudi Aramco has ramped up exports from Ras Tanura and shifted some sales to spot pricing for Asia as Strait of Hormuz traffic improves, with multiple supertankers reportedly exiting carrying about 10 million barrels. Energy Infrastructure: Webuild’s Fisia Italimpianti has started operations at an Aramco water treatment facility for the offshore Zuluf oilfield in eastern Saudi Arabia, marking “first water” and moving toward commercial operations. Digital Economy: Saudi Arabia retained the No.1 spot in the 2026 ITU ICT Development Index for the second year, driven by investment in digital infrastructure, cloud, AI and connectivity. AI & Industry: A report says MEA AI adoption is moving from pilots to sector-wide rollouts, with Saudi and the UAE leading by combining large-scale infrastructure with governance frameworks. Agritech Finance: UAE agri-fintech Maalexi raised $2.8m in an oversubscribed round led by Saudi insurer Tawuniya to expand its regulated agricultural trade exchange infrastructure. Energy Storage: Wood Mackenzie says Chinese integrators dominated the global BESS integrator market in 2025 with 76% share, while Saudi’s recent tender rounds total 5 GW/20 GWh. Online Safety: YouTube launched supervised kid accounts across MENA, including Saudi Arabia, adding parental controls like Shorts feed timers and stricter privacy defaults.