AGP Executive Report

US-Iran Peace Framework: The US and Iran agreed to end military operations and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with a formal signing set for June 19 in Switzerland—an event already pushing oil lower but with experts warning recovery for shipping and refining could take months. Energy Markets & Shipping: Even with “toll-free” reopening language, stranded vessels, insurance, and safety checks mean fuel-price relief won’t be instant, keeping logistics costs and risk premiums elevated. Saudi Housing & Construction: Saudi Arabia’s National Housing Company signed an MoU with China’s Sinoma-CDI to boost construction and real estate know-how. China Housing Contracts: Saudi awarded Chinese firms SAR 506m to build nearly 4,500 housing units in Riyadh and Dammam, supporting the Kingdom’s push to scale housing delivery. Rail Freight Expansion: Saudi Arabia Railways awarded a contract to extend the Eastern Province freight network, including a 22.7-km line to serve Dammam Second Industrial City. Saudi-KSA Industry Cooperation: Saudi and South Korea signed an energy cooperation agreement, underlining continued cross-border industrial and energy tie-ups.

Strait of Hormuz Shock: Iran says it has fully closed the Strait of Hormuz to shipping after U.S. airstrikes, warning of major supply disruption as the chokepoint carries about a fifth of global oil; shipping firms halt operations and insurance costs jump. Deal Momentum: Amid the risk, Pakistan’s PM Shehbaz Sharif says a U.S.-Iran peace deal is in place, with a signing set for June 19 in Switzerland, and Trump authorizes toll-free reopening of Hormuz and removal of the U.S. naval blockade—though Iran’s final confirmation remains in question. Energy Market Watch: Analysts and economists warn any reopening won’t instantly cut fuel prices; repairs, shut-in wells, and damaged infrastructure could keep costs elevated for months. Logistics & Rail: Türkiye and Saudi Arabia plan a rail link via Jordan and Syria to Europe within 3–4 years, aiming to reduce future chokepoint disruption. Saudi Digital Push: GASTAT reports 98.1% of Saudi establishments have active internet and AI adoption rose 20% in 2025, supporting Vision 2030 transformation. Construction Cooperation: Saudi and Chinese contractors signed six MoUs in Shenzhen to boost housing, construction tech, localization, and PPPs, aligned with plans for 100,000+ housing units by 2030. Aviation Performance: Saudia hit top global on-time performance in May, with 92.30% on-time departures and 90.12% arrivals. Energy Cooperation Abroad: South Korea and Saudi Arabia signed an energy resources MOU covering crude and gas cooperation, stockpiling, pipeline infrastructure, and AI/digital tools. Urban Compliance: Saudi municipalities extended a grace period for vacant land owners to fix violations until Sept. 26.

Energy Security Shock: Iran has shut the Strait of Hormuz to all shipping, escalating the US-Iran standoff and raising fears of major supply disruption and higher oil prices. Diplomacy Watch: Pakistan says the US and Iran have agreed on the final text of a deal aimed at ending the war, with an electronic signing ceremony expected soon. LPG Infrastructure Push: Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Energy awarded eight LPG licences for filling, storage and wholesale distribution, backing new private-sector capacity across Riyadh, Hail, Al Ahsa, Jeddah and Jazan. Trade & Power Support: Saudi Arabia signed a $150m petroleum derivatives deal with Yemen to supply diesel and mazut for more than 70 power plants, supporting electricity stability. Aviation Digital Upgrade: Zain Saudi Arabia and Dammam Airports signed an MoU to expand airport digital services using 5G, cloud and smart connectivity. Umrah Oversight: Saudi Arabia suspended 21 Umrah service companies over regulatory violations and weak performance ahead of the upcoming season. Logistics Continuity: A Korean tanker successfully transited the Red Sea after loading crude at Saudi’s Yanbu Port, marking the ninth shipment using the alternative route amid Hormuz disruption.

Energy Security Shock: Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority says the Strait of Hormuz will be fully closed to shipping on June 11, a move that could disrupt about a fifth of global petroleum consumption and spike insurance and shipping costs. Oil Market Reality Check: Even with U.S. efforts to keep flows moving, tanker traffic and volumes remain well below pre-war levels, keeping prices volatile and supply chains on edge. Saudi Industry Angle: With Brent risk discussed by officials and markets bracing for higher fuel costs, Saudi firms face direct pressure on logistics, refining economics, and downstream demand. Diplomacy Watch: A U.S.-Iran ceasefire framework is reportedly near signing, with Pakistan saying an electronic ceremony could happen Sunday—though Iran’s side is pushing back on timing. Saudi Agribusiness Export Push: Saudi Arabia will showcase premium dates and processed date products as guest of honor at New York’s Fancy Food Show (June 28–30), aiming to expand global reach as date exports near SR2bn. Saudi EPC Contracting: Saipem won a ~€900m share of a Saudi onshore gas compression EPC for the Uthmaniyah field under Aramco’s National EPC Champion Programme, reinforcing local-international contractor partnerships.

Energy Security: Iran shut the Strait of Hormuz to all shipping after U.S. airstrikes, a move that blocks a key route for about 20% of global oil and could send crude sharply higher while insurers and shipping firms adjust. Oil Market Watch: With peace hopes still in play, analysts project crude could slide later in 2026 if Hormuz reopens, but near-term volatility remains the story. Saudi Shipping & Refining: Gulf fuel exports are rebounding as some tankers slip through, with Saudi and other producers lifting diesel, gasoline and naphtha shipments—still far below pre-war levels. Regional Dealmaking: Pakistan says the U.S. and Iran have agreed “final text” wording for a deal to end the war, with mediators working on next steps. Saudi Industry Leadership: Aquapharm Chemical appointed Rohit Narang as CEO to scale specialty-chemicals operations across the U.S., Saudi Arabia and India. Capital Markets: SpaceX’s record IPO pushed Elon Musk to first-ever trillionaire status, with the deal’s scale also highlighting Saudi Aramco’s past IPO benchmark. Competition Policy: The U.S. DOJ cleared Paramount Skydance’s $110B Warner Bros. Discovery takeover, saying it should boost competition in streaming and media.

Space & Capital Markets: SpaceX’s record $75bn IPO sent shares up about 19–25% on Nasdaq, valuing the company around $2.1T and making Elon Musk the world’s first trillionaire, as investors bet on satellites, orbital data centers and AI despite losses. Energy Security: Iran’s Strait of Hormuz closure threat and wider Hormuz disruption kept oil and shipping on edge, while reports say the US and Iran are close to an agreement that could reopen the chokepoint—though “reopening” details remain unclear, leaving shipowners cautious. Saudi Industry & Trade: GFH Bank signed an MoU with OCTO to develop a $300m logistics and industrial real estate platform across the UAE and Saudi Arabia, targeting warehousing, cold storage and distribution centers. Regional Industry Cooperation: Saudi Arabia and Kazakhstan moved to deepen mining and minerals cooperation, with Saudi officials highlighting critical minerals and processing opportunities. Finance Tech: Alrajhi Capital selected EquiLend as its securities finance technology partner to scale post-trade and related services.

Oil Trade Shift: Kuwait Petroleum Corp. has started offering crude directly to Asian refiners for the first time since the 1990-91 Gulf War, a move to expand market share as regional conflict reshapes supply routes. Saudi Energy Demand Watch: Saudi Aramco’s July crude supply to China is set to stay at record lows, with Chinese refiners reluctant to buy higher-priced barrels as they draw down inventories and run cuts continue. Middle East Energy Risk: Markets are still reacting to the Iran-US standoff, with Trump saying a deal could be signed soon in Europe while Iran says no final decision is made—keeping Strait of Hormuz uncertainty front and center. Infrastructure & Water: Dubai selected preferred bidders for early packages of its $22bn Dubai Strategic Sewerage Tunnels PPP, including Saudi-led consortiums for major tunnel and sewer link works. Tourism Cooperation: Saudi Arabia is deepening tourism ties with France and Indonesia via a joint action program focused on investment, training and destination competitiveness. Aviation/Logistics: Riyadh Air continues expanding routes and operations despite regional volatility, signaling ongoing demand for connectivity.

Middle East Energy Shock: Trump cancelled threatened Iran strikes after talks reached Iran’s top leadership, with claims a peace deal could be signed this weekend and reopen the Strait of Hormuz—though Iran says no final decision yet—keeping oil prices volatile and raising the stakes for Gulf energy security. Saudi Infrastructure & PPP: Saudi Arabia launched a tender for a landmark Makkah development on Al-Hada Road under a 50-year BOOT model, aiming to bring private capital into commercial and mixed-use services. Saudi Ports & Logistics: Saudi Global Ports won a $528m Jubail terminal expansion deal, a direct boost for industrial shipping capacity as regional trade routes adapt. Saudi Industry Watch: Lockheed Martin said it can’t confirm Patriot delivery timelines for allies, including Gulf partners, highlighting uncertainty in air-defense procurement amid shifting US allocation priorities. Energy Market Context: A Fed study finds today’s oil shocks from the Iran war hit inflation and jobs far less than in the 1970s, even as analysts warn of bigger downside if disruptions return. Global Energy Events: Global Energy Show Canada 2026 wrapped in Calgary with 38,000+ attendees and $70.6m estimated local impact, underscoring continued investment focus on energy security.

Water Innovation: Saudi Arabia’s SWA is set to bring back the Innovation Driven Water Sustainability Conference (IDWS) in Jeddah from Dec 7–9, aiming to grow participation by 50% to 10,000+ attendees and spotlight governance, desalination and sustainable water management. Oil & Trade Flows: Saudi crude supply to China is expected to stay at record lows in July, with Aramco shipments around 387,096 bpd as Chinese refiners avoid higher-priced barrels amid weak demand. Energy Diplomacy: China’s National Energy Administration deputy chief met Saudi Aramco in Beijing to discuss global energy security and bilateral oil and gas cooperation as Hormuz disruptions continue. Industrial Projects: Saipem won a €900m EPC contract for Saudi Arabia’s Uthmaniyah Gas Compression Plant under the National EPC Champion Programme, targeting longer field production life. Regional Commerce: Saudi Arabia reopened its market to Lebanese exports after a five-year ban, citing Lebanon’s steps to rebuild state institutions and easing pressure on agriculture and other exporters. Aviation/Logistics: Egypt launched trial operations at Noatum Ports’ Safaga 2 multipurpose terminal, a 30-year concession with AD Ports Group, with first vessels arriving ahead of full commercial start later this year. Construction & Infrastructure: Saudi Arabia’s PPP tender for a new Taif airport project signals continued aviation infrastructure push.

Aviation & Ports: Saudi Arabia is pushing through logistics and capacity upgrades despite regional shocks: Matarat Holding and the National Center for Privatization & PPP launched an RFP for a PPP-built Taif International Airport (BTO, 30 years) targeting 2.5m passengers by 2030, while Saudi Global Ports won a $528m Jubail Commercial Port container terminal expansion with Mawani, aiming to lift throughput to about 2.4m TEUs. Air Connectivity: Riyadh Air completed its maiden London Heathrow flight on Boeing 787 Dreamliners, with plans to expand its network through March 2027. Transport Corridors: Türkiye and Saudi Arabia signed MoUs on logistics services and railway cooperation, building toward a Hejaz Railway revival as an overland alternative to Hormuz-linked disruptions. Energy Shock Watch: With the Strait of Hormuz under pressure, jet fuel prices and flows are shifting; US refinery output and export demand are rising, and economists warn oil volatility could still feed inflation and growth risks. Policy & Diplomacy: France’s Macron invited Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE to a G7 working session focused on the Middle East war, Hormuz and Iran talks.

Saudi Economy & Oil Outlook: Riyad Capital expects Saudi real GDP growth to jump to 6.8% in 2027 (from 0.9% in 2026), driven by a gradual reopening of Strait of Hormuz routes from September and a rebound in crude output to 10.4m bpd. Port & Logistics Expansion: Saudi Ports Authority signed a concession with Saudi Global Ports to expand Jubail Commercial Port, lifting capacity to about 2.4m TEUs and investing over SAR 2bn ($528m). GCC Construction Costs: AESG says Gulf construction remains strong, with concrete supply up 13% and reinforcement steel up 16% since Q4 2025, as building-material costs keep rising. Red Sea Rerouting: Suez Canal traffic jumped in April, with tankers up 28% as Hormuz disruption pushes more flows toward Egypt and Saudi Red Sea routes like Yanbu. Aviation Push: Riyadh Air launched its second national carrier service after Boeing delivery delays, aiming to make Riyadh a global hub. Rail & Logistics Cooperation: Saudi and Türkiye signed MoUs covering logistics services and railway tech, including digitalization and localizing railway industry. Industrial & Tech Deals: GFH Bank and OCTO will develop a $300m logistics and industrial platform across Saudi and UAE. Energy Security & Markets: Major Gulf stocks slipped amid fresh US-Iran strikes, while oil prices stayed volatile. Mining Licensing: Saudi MIMR qualified 24 bidders for exploration licenses across three mineral belts, starting the multi-round auction phase. AI for Mobility: HUMAIN and NVIDIA plan to bring the DRIVE Hyperion robotaxi-ready platform to Saudi, backed by large compute buildout.

Rail & Logistics: Saudi Arabia and Türkiye signed MoUs in Riyadh to boost railway cooperation, including standards, technology transfer, engineering work, safety, workforce training, and localization—part of a wider push to revive the Hejaz Railway and create alternative trade routes. Mining & Industry: Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Industry and Mineral Resources qualified 24 local and international bidders for Round 10 of mineral exploration licensing, spanning belts across Madinah, Makkah, Riyadh, Qassim and Hail. Energy Disruption: Qatar halted LNG output and Saudi shut a major refinery after regional strikes and precautionary measures, underscoring how Middle East tensions are reshaping oil and gas flows. Aviation & Mobility: flynas opened its sixth Saudi operations base in Al-Qassim, expanding domestic connectivity as Riyadh Air also ramps up new routes. AI & Power Demand: A UN warning says AI could soon use 3% of the world’s electricity and more water than needed for drinking—raising pressure on energy planning for data centers. Food Safety Oversight: Saudi SFDA penalized 1,753 erring food establishments, tightening compliance across the industrial food sector.

Energy & Shipping Risk: Strait of Hormuz disruption is still reshaping oil flows, with Fitch warning the bottleneck is temporary and tied to logistics, not permanent output loss, while analysts note “clandestine” transits may be keeping markets calmer than feared. Geopolitics & Industry: Israel and Iran appeared to pause strikes after trading fire, but the wider Middle East risk remains a live variable for energy costs and supply chains. Saudi Projects & Construction: Alramz shelved Tadawul IPO plans due to weak sentiment, while Saudi Arabia’s contractors bulletin said May project awards jumped to nearly SAR 30bn (+154% month-on-month), with infrastructure leading. Real Estate Development: Alramz and Assayel launched a SAR 370m Shariah-compliant Riyadh residential fund for a 290-apartment project in Al Raed. Aviation & Connectivity: Riyadh Air opened bookings for new routes, with the first commercial flight to London Heathrow on 10 June and additional services to Dubai and Cairo. Food & Agri-Industry: Saudi Arabia and Russia signed 13 deals worth $1.28bn to localize industries and boost food security, including veterinary vaccine and livestock feed cooperation. Logistics & Ports: AD Ports launched trial operations at Noatum Ports’ Safaga Terminal in Egypt, positioning it as a Red Sea gateway for mining and trade. Tech & Manufacturing Signals: Aramco and Emerson partnered on end-to-end corrosion monitoring, pointing to deeper industrial digitization.

Oil & Shipping Shock: OPEC+ agreed to raise July output by 188,000 bpd, but analysts warn the real bottleneck is delivery as the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted and Red Sea risks rise. Red Sea Threat: Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis announced a total ban on Israeli shipping in the Red Sea, escalating pressure on global trade routes and energy markets. Aramco Tech Push: Aramco and Emerson will co-develop an end-to-end corrosion monitoring system using AI to predict failures and optimize maintenance across Aramco assets. Food Safety Clampdown: SFDA penalized 1,753 non-compliant food establishments and blocked 1,057 tons of substandard products in Q1, citing issues from licensing gaps to contamination. Transport & Industry Buildout: Eastern Province unveiled SR406m road projects and signed 3bn+ in transport agreements, while OHL Arabia and Hassan Allam won a 22.7-km Dammam 2nd Industrial City rail link contract. Energy Policy Ripple: Saudi-linked global fuel pressures also show up in India’s Ujjwala LPG scheme, where subsidized cylinder entitlement was cut to four per year for beneficiaries. Compliance & Trade: USTR proposed new Section 301 forced-labor tariffs of 10%–12.5% on imports from 60 economies, with comments due July 6.

Oil Market Shock Watch: A Fed study says today’s Iran-war oil shocks are hitting inflation less than in the 1970s and the employment impact has largely faded, even as Saudi officials warn Brent could push above $180 and the IEA calls Hormuz the biggest supply shock on record. OPEC+ Output Debate: OPEC+ is weighing another July quota hike of about 188,000 bpd to cool prices, but analysts say limited spare capacity and Hormuz realities mean the move may not shift prices much. Red Sea Disruption Risk: Houthis declared a complete ban on Israeli shipping and warned of attacks in the Red Sea/Bab al-Mandeb corridor, raising fresh pressure on Gulf export routes and shipping costs. Saudi Defense Industry: Navantia won a five-year Saudi corvette support contract for maintenance, spare parts and a localization plan at King Faisal Naval Base in Jeddah. Saudi Energy & Infrastructure Signals: Saudi energy officials continue to frame the kingdom as a reliable, flexible supplier while regional tensions keep energy logistics front and center. Industry Research Roundup: New market reports flag growth themes from corporate training to biopharma, inhalers, bioreactors and hyperloop—mostly global forecasts, but relevant for Saudi procurement and industrial planning.

Oil Market Watch: OPEC+ approved a fourth straight increase in July oil output quotas, adding 188,000 bpd despite the Strait of Hormuz still being largely closed and limiting real barrels moving; Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman agreed the hike while stressing flexibility to pause or reverse if conditions change. Energy Security & Shipping: The Hormuz disruption continues to reshape logistics and costs, with analysts calling the quota move mostly symbolic until physical supply routes reopen. Industrial Partnerships: Saudi Industry Minister Bandar Al-Khorayef met investors in Russia at SPIEF to deepen cooperation in mining and industrial localization, including work on mineral exploration technologies and supply-chain development. Trade & Logistics Links: Maersk launched a new weekly Northern Europe–Egypt service (Sea Baltic Link) to cut transit variability and improve reliability into Port Said and Alexandria, reflecting demand for steadier Mediterranean routing. Aviation & Fuel Pressure: Ethiopian Airlines said it has resumed most Gulf/Middle East flying but faces higher fuel costs after Hormuz-linked supply disruptions, including a longer contract with a Saudi fuel supplier. Urban Development: PIF and Talaat Moustafa signed an MoU to explore mixed-use real estate projects across Saudi, aiming to accelerate delivery across residential, commercial, hospitality and retail.