AGP Executive Report

Hormuz Talks Heat Up: U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio says “slight progress” in US-Iran talks as Pakistan’s army chief heads to Tehran and Qatar sends mediators—yet Iran warns “no deal” if the US demands enriched uranium handover, keeping the ceasefire-to-peace path stuck. Energy Pressure on the Move: The Strait of Hormuz standoff is still trapping thousands of sailors and reshaping crude tanker routes, while oil prices swing on deal hopes and renewed escalation threats. Gulf Diplomacy Signals: UAE, Saudi and Qatar urge Washington to keep negotiations alive, even as Iran’s rhetoric turns sharper and shipping toll plans face US rejection. Saudi Industry Pulse: Venus Remedies wins Saudi drug regulator approval for plerixafor, marking its first global launch there, while MAN Industries buys Saudi pipe maker NPC for $102m to deepen regional infrastructure reach. Markets & Risk Mood: PSX slips on profit-taking after week-long optimism tied to easing oil and US-Iran negotiation headlines.

Saudi Market Shift: Ashmore says Saudi trading is moving from short-term speculation toward institutional money, with sukuk issuance up 35% in 2025 and continuing momentum into 2026. Energy Exports: Saudi merchandise surplus jumped 218.9% y/y in March to the highest since 2022, as oil exports rose 37.4% and the East-West pipeline boosted Red Sea access. Oil & Risk Premium: Brent held near $104 as investors stayed unsure about US-Iran talks and Hormuz remains closed, keeping supply tight. Hormuz Toll Talks: Iran and Oman are discussing a ship-fee plan for the Strait, a sign diplomacy is still messy and not fully aligned. Climate Pressure: The UN General Assembly backed an ICJ view that states must act on climate change; Saudi was among the “no” votes. Tech & Infrastructure: K-water is expanding overseas water solutions, including a Jeddah digital-twin flood project. Business Moves: MYCRANE hired new sales leaders in Riyadh; Zinc Media agreed to buy WMP Qatar. Sports: Ronaldo’s brace powered Al Nassr to the Saudi Pro League title.

Saudi Economy & Construction: GASTAT says Saudi Arabia’s construction cost index climbed 2.4% in April year-on-year, with residential costs up 2.4% and non-residential up 2.7%, driven by higher equipment/machinery rentals, labor, and energy. Markets & Finance: SIIG shareholders approved a buyback of up to 10 million shares to hold as treasury stock, citing prices below fair value, while also authorizing interim dividends for 2026. NEOM Reality Check: NEOM has terminated Webuild’s Connector High-Speed Line contract in Tabuk, effective May 27, with works ~20% complete and a remaining backlog of about €1bn. Trade & Logistics: Saudi non-oil exports (including re-exports) jumped 21.5% in March, and Mawani launched a new cargo route linking Jeddah–Salalah–Djibouti to boost Red Sea/Gulf connectivity. Geopolitics & Oil: Iran talks and Hormuz control plans kept markets jumpy, while Gulf stocks rebounded on deal hopes and firmer oil. Tech & Entertainment: Qiddiya and Google Cloud expanded their partnership to power Qiddiya City with AI and data-driven operations.

Consultancy Freeze: Saudi Arabia has halted new contracts for Western consultancies and delayed some payments as the Iran-war shock tightens fiscal room, with ministries requiring special clearance before approving fresh work. Energy Squeeze: With gas output pressured, Aramco is importing more fuel oil for power this summer—an expensive detour that underscores how Hormuz disruption is still reshaping Saudi generation planning. Hormuz Pressure: More than 160 tankers remain stranded under Iran’s control, keeping a lid on shipping and feeding volatility in crude markets. Diplomacy vs Strikes: US-Iran talks are described as “borderline” and in “final stages,” but Israel and Washington are reportedly split on whether to resume strikes. Climate Legal Push: The UN General Assembly backed a world-court climate opinion 141-8, with Saudi Arabia among the opponents—raising the stakes for future climate-related claims. Trade Boost: The UK and GCC concluded a modern free trade deal, promising major tariff cuts and new services access for Gulf partners including Saudi and Oman.

UK-GCC Trade Push: Britain clinched a long-awaited free trade deal with the six GCC states (including Saudi Arabia and the UAE), removing about £580m in tariffs on UK exports and cutting 93% of GCC tariffs over time—covering food, medical equipment and advanced manufacturing. Iran War Energy Shock: As US-Iran talks are said to be in the “final stages,” oil logistics remain the real battleground: Saudi crude exports hit a record low in March (4.974m bpd) and the Kingdom’s output and refinery throughput fell sharply amid Strait of Hormuz disruption. Hormuz Bypass Race: The UAE’s new West-East pipeline is reported ~50% complete, aimed at doubling export capacity via Fujairah by 2027—while markets stay jittery over how fast flows can recover. Saudi Economy Signals: Saudi Arabia’s operating revenue index rose 10.2% y/y in March, with strength in mining, manufacturing and communications. Hajj Readiness: Health Minister Fahad Al-Jalajel inspected private-sector facilities at the holy sites, including expanded Mina emergency capacity ahead of 2026.

Gulf Flashpoint, Markets: Trump says he was “an hour away” from striking Iran, then paused again after Saudi/UAE/Qatar urged more talks—while warning a “limited” window (days to early next week) before a possible “big hit.” Shipping & Oil Flow: Two Chinese tankers have exited the Strait of Hormuz, easing near-term supply fears as Hormuz uncertainty keeps oil and freight jittery. Saudi Logistics: Mawani launched the “Red Sea Express” container service linking Jeddah, Yanbu (King Fahd Industrial Port), Ain Sokhna, and Aqaba to speed regional trade. Saudi Industry Finance/Tech: SIFC is moving to revive the long-stalled Tuwairqi Steel Mills project by approving gas supply—Saudi-backed industrial momentum despite regional risk. Saudi Aviation & Travel Demand: Riyadh Air’s debut on FLYR’s Offer & Order platform signals a more retail-style airline shopping experience. Regional Business Pulse: Cvent’s 2026 MEA MICE rankings keep Dubai on top; Riyadh climbs into the top five. Aviation Disruption Watch: British Airways cut summer 2026 services to several Middle East cities, reflecting ongoing instability.

Iran Tensions, Saudi Angle: US President Donald Trump says he was “an hour away” from restarting strikes on Iran, but paused again after calls involving Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE—while warning Tehran has only “two or three days” (or early next week) to reach a deal. Energy Markets: The threat keeps oil and shipping nerves high as Hormuz disruption risk continues to shape prices and regional planning. UAE Nuclear Security: The UAE says drones that hit the Barakah nuclear plant came from Iraqi territory, with no radiation leak reported—raising the stakes for Gulf critical infrastructure. Saudi Industry Move: SARCO signed a one-year MoU with Ally Hydrogen Energy to develop green ammonia and build a Jazan hub for hydrogen equipment assembly and manufacturing. Aviation & Travel: Riyadh Air opened public ticket sales for its Riyadh–London route starting July 1, and Alshaya and Hilton expanded loyalty ties across Saudi and the region.

Iran-US Tension Reset: US President Donald Trump says he has put a planned Tuesday strike on Iran “on hold” after Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE asked him to let “serious negotiations” continue—while warning the US military is still ready for a “full, large-scale assault” if no acceptable deal emerges. Iran’s Offer: Tehran’s latest proposal, delivered via Pakistan, calls for ending hostilities on all fronts (including Lebanon), US troop exit from areas near Iran, and reparations—plus lifting sanctions and ending a US marine blockade. Saudi-UAE Regional Friction: Reports say the Iran war is straining GCC cohesion as the UAE’s ties with Israel become a growing point of contention. Markets Watch: Gulf equities slid again as drone incidents near the UAE’s Barakah plant and Saudi interceptions kept risk elevated, even as oil eased on diplomacy hopes. Saudi Industry Pulse: Aramco Digital named Dr. Ashraf AlTahini CEO to push industrial AI and digital transformation. Investment Spotlight: GymNation secured a $100m credit facility from HPS (BlackRock) to accelerate GCC expansion.

Iran War Pause: Trump says he’s postponed planned strikes on Iran after requests from Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, while warning a “full, large-scale assault” is ready if talks fail and insisting any deal must leave Iran without nuclear weapons. Hormuz Pressure on Markets: Oil jumped to a two-week high as drone incidents and “clock is ticking” rhetoric keep supply fears alive, with Saudi intercepts and UAE damage reports adding to volatility. Saudi-UAE Security Flashpoints: Pakistan condemned drone attacks on Saudi Arabia and voiced solidarity with Riyadh, after earlier UAE/Barakah nuclear-site strike reports and Saudi interceptions of drones from Iraqi airspace. Pakistan’s Bigger Role: Reuters reports Pakistan has deployed about 8,000 troops, JF-17 jets, drones and an HQ-9 air-defense system to Saudi Arabia under a confidential defense pact—while Islamabad continues mediating US-Iran talks. Local Business Watch: Saudi’s Tadawul index slipped to 10,956 as investors digested the regional risk premium. Tourism Deal: Red Sea Global welcomed first guests at Four Seasons Resort and Residences Red Sea at Shura Island from 20 May, signaling momentum in Saudi luxury hospitality.

Gulf Tension Hits Energy Nerves: Oil jumped again as a drone strike near the UAE’s Barakah nuclear plant stoked fears of renewed escalation, while Saudi Arabia said it intercepted three drones entering from Iraq; with Trump warning Iran the “clock is ticking” and reports saying a Situation Room meeting may weigh military options, markets are pricing higher risk around the Strait of Hormuz. Markets React: European shares slid as bonds sold off on inflation worries, and gold and silver eased as yields and the dollar rose. Logistics Workarounds: Shipping lines are leaning on partial land-and-sea reroutes via Saudi and UAE ports as Hormuz disruption persists, while Sharjah and Oman launched a new logistics corridor to speed customs clearance at border crossings. Saudi Business Moves: Atheel KAFD Hotel is set to open in Riyadh in Q4 2026, and Tarshid signed a solar PV deal with TALCO to supply clean power to Riyadh facilities. Fintech Momentum: Saudi fintech hit 300+ players, with digital payments now dominating everyday transactions.

Nuclear Flashpoint: A drone strike sparked a fire at the UAE’s Barakah nuclear power plant, hitting an electrical generator outside the inner perimeter; authorities say no injuries and no radiation impact, while the IAEA voiced “grave concern” and UAE officials say the attack is a dangerous escalation amid a fragile Iran-U.S. ceasefire. US-Iran Pressure: Trump again warned Iran that “the clock is ticking” as talks stall, while Washington also says it’s enforcing a blockade against Iranian-flagged tankers—raising doubts about how durable the ceasefire really is. GCC Solidarity: The GCC Secretary-General and regional foreign ministers condemned the Barakah attack and backed UAE security measures. Saudi Angle: Saudi Arabia is pulled into the wider Hormuz and regional-security squeeze, even as the Kingdom keeps pushing ahead on industry—like Riyadh Metro progress, with Webuild completing the Western Station on the Orange Line. Ongoing Watch: The immediate source and responsibility for the drone attack are still under investigation.

Hormuz Flashpoint: Iran’s Revolutionary Guard warned of “heavy assault” on any attack on Iranian tankers after the U.S. struck two Iranian-flagged oil ships, while Washington awaits Tehran’s response to a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and roll back nuclear steps. Energy Security at the UN: Saudi Arabia’s UN envoy stressed protecting maritime routes and energy flows at an ECOSOC meeting, backing Bahrain’s draft resolution to safeguard navigation. Clean Energy in Jazan: SARCO signed a MoU with China’s Ally Hydrogen Energy to build a green ammonia plant and a Jazan hub for hydrogen equipment assembly, plus an R&D center with Saudi universities. Digital Sovereignty Push: Saudi Arabia is positioning “digital sovereignty” as an operational governance model, not just data storage, after topping the ITU’s 2025 digital readiness ranking. Regional Trade Signals: Pakistan’s PM touted IT momentum as fish exports crossed $500m, with Russia access cited as a key driver. Saudi Spotlight: Canelo Alvarez returns to Riyadh on Sept 12 vs Christian Mbilli for the WBC super-middleweight title.

Maritime Security & Oil Flows: Oil prices jumped again as U.S.-Iran tensions hardened, with the Strait of Hormuz still the key risk for Saudi and other Gulf exporters; Iraq said it shipped just 10 million barrels through Hormuz in April, far below pre-war levels, while the U.S. enforced blockade moves against Iranian-linked tankers. GCC Coordination: At a GCC finance meeting, Saudi and partners pushed for “higher level” integration to protect supply chains and keep trade moving as the Strait disruption drags on. Logistics Expansion: Riyadh Cargo is widening global reach, appointing new GSSA partners in Egypt, India, and the UAE to strengthen air-freight coverage. Energy Diversification: The UAE doubled down on bypassing Hormuz with a fast-tracked west-east pipeline to Fujairah by 2027, underscoring how Gulf states are rerouting exports. Legal & Reputation Watch: France moved forward with a judicial review tied to the Khashoggi killing complaint against Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Innovation Spotlight: Saudi secured second place globally at ISEF 2026 for a third straight year, winning 12 grand awards.

Hormuz Tensions Escalate: The U.S. struck two Iranian oil tankers and is enforcing a blockade, while Iran’s Revolutionary Guard warns of “heavy assault” on U.S. bases if vessels are attacked—keeping a fragile ceasefire in doubt and pushing oil up (Brent +3% to ~$109, WTI +4%). Saudi-Iran Diplomacy: Saudi Arabia is reportedly pushing a regional non-aggression pact with Iran modeled on the Helsinki approach, as Iran says lack of trust is blocking talks with Washington and welcomes China’s mediation. Gulf Energy Resilience: The UAE is accelerating pipeline build-outs to bypass Hormuz (ADNOC’s Fujairah route), underscoring how the region is rerouting exports to protect supply. Saudi Tokenization Push: droppRWA secured $12.5bn in tokenization mandates to move real estate onto blockchain, expanding into energy and manufacturing. Market Spillover: India’s fuel costs stay sensitive to Hormuz disruption, with trade deficit pressure rising as energy import bills climb.

Hormuz Pressure Peaks: Iran says “no trust” is blocking talks to end the war with the U.S., while Trump again signaled escalation, and oil jumped as markets priced in a longer standoff. Gulf Retaliation Escalates: U.S. officials say Saudi Arabia and the UAE carried out secret attacks in Iran—an unusual step that raises the risk of wider tit-for-tat. Saudi Diplomacy Moves: Saudi Arabia is exploring a non-aggression pact with Iran modeled on the Helsinki approach, aiming to lower conflict risk while keeping Gulf security front and center. Energy Infrastructure Race: The UAE is fast-tracking a Fujairah bypass pipeline to double export capacity by 2027, and Saudi-linked tokenization plans are also gaining attention as firms look for new ways to settle real-estate deals. Saudi Industry & Skills: Saudi students won 12 special awards at ISEF 2026, reinforcing the Kingdom’s push to turn research into industry-ready talent. Regional Trade: Saudi and Pakistan discussed industrial cooperation, especially fertilizers, as supply-chain stability becomes a top priority.

Hormuz Pressure, Saudi Angle: The U.S. says it struck two Iranian oil tankers trying to breach its blockade, while Iran’s Revolutionary Guard warns any attack on its vessels would trigger “heavy assault” on U.S. bases—keeping the ceasefire shaky and Strait-of-Hormuz risk front and center. Market Fallout: India’s crude stocks are down about 15% since late February as imports fall, and analysts warn refiners may eventually cut runs if disruptions drag on. Saudi Business Signals: Saudi PIF is now an “official tournament supporter” of the World Cup, doubling down on sports investment even as it pulls back from LIV Golf. Energy Company Update: TAQA reported Q1 2026 revenue of AED13.7bn and steady net income of AED2.1bn, while boosting capex for power and water networks. Tech/Capital Watch: SpaceX plans to file its IPO application publicly next week, a reminder that global capital markets are still hungry for big listings.